When the betting odds indicate that a UFC fight is a mismatch, does that usually mean that it is? This article is written to prove that it does.

UFC betting odds will be provided for OVER/UNDER round betting wagers. This is a bet you can make on how many rounds a bout will last. For a three-round contest, a bet will usually be OVER/UNDER 1.5 rounds. For five-round matchups, the OVER/UNDER is typically 2.5 rounds. MMA betting with odds on upcoming mixed martial arts bouts, including UFC. View all bookmaker MMA lines and get the best betting value with Oddschecker.

A moneyline bet in the UFC is a wager picking which of the two fighters in a bout will win and is adjusted based on who is favored in the match. American moneyline odds are based on winning $100, so if Stipe Miocic is a -125 favorite, that means you need to risk $125 to win $100. If Daniel Cormier is a +130 underdog, you’ll win $130 if you risk $100. Wagering $100 on each bet is not. Picks: Dustin Poirier (+240) and Over 2.5 rounds (+150) Odds: +240 and +150. Total number or rounds: over/under. Over 1.5:-125; Under 1.5: +105; Total number or rounds.

The goal of this article is to help influence profitable betting decisions. It succeeds by including data on how big favorites perform on fight totals.

What is a big favorite? A big favorite is when a fighter has odds of -300, or wider, to win. Therefore, in terms of percentages, a big favorite means that a fighter’s implied odds of winning are 75% or more.

What are fight totals? A fight total is a bet on whether a fight will end before or after a certain length of time (1.5 rounds, 2.5 rounds, 3.5 round, or 4.5 rounds).

Here are some questions that this post will answer:

1. How often does an under cash when the matchup has a big favorite?

2. How often does an under cash when the matchup doesn’t have a big favorite?

3. How much more likely is an under going to happen when the fight totals are set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds, when a matchup involves a big favorite?

4. Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites?

5. How do all the divisions compare in fight total statistics, when it involves UFC matchups with a big favorite?

[RECOMMENDED ARTICLE: MMA Betting Checklist: 25 Questions to Accurately Predict Winners]

All of this analysis is solely concerned with data on the UFC promotion.

All UFC betting lines for over/unders (also known as fight totals) can be found at 5Dimes. However, these lines don’t come out until a few days before the start of an upcoming UFC event.

How often does an under cash when the matchup has a big favorite?

The quick answer is 49.1% (105/214). That statistic takes into account data from UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147, which is the past 71 UFC events. So, about half of the time, a matchup with a big favorite will result in a finish before the lined fight total. This result includes the sum of all the over and under variations (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 rounds).

What makes this statistic hold any value? What is value in this context? Value is when the probability of occurrence is greater than the implied odds specified from betting odds. The reason it holds value is because statistics are good for benchmarks. They help compute the trend of future probability by comparing the record of the past.

Ultimately, the value in knowing that big favorites cash the under 49.1% of the time is that you can use this information for future decisions. For example, the American odds for 49.1% is +104. Knowing that, I’ll be a lot more hesitant to bet an under that’s a -200.

How often does an under cash for UFC betting, when the matchup doesn’t have a big favorite?

To gain a better perspective of how big 49.1% is, let’s see what the other side of the coin reveals.

During the same span of UFC events (71), the under cashes 37.8% of the time, when fights don’t have big favorites. The under is 11.3% more likely to occur (win/cash) when a big favorite is involved. That’s enough to consider a big favorite more of a finishing threat.

Intuitively, this makes sense. The wider the perceived margin in skill by oddsmakers, the more likely that margin results in a stoppage win. In other words, more finishes will result in more under bets cashing.

Why is this statistic involving a 11.3% differential meaningful? If it’s possible to increase the chances for success in any endeavor by over 11%, why not take it? In UFC betting, you need every percent you can get. Every advantage equals more profit. Let me rephrase that, every statistical advantage equals more systematic profit.

“… every statistical advantage equals more systematic profit.”

Although the sample sizes are different, the point of this comparison is to see how big favorites and non-big favorites performed on fight totals during the same amount of UFC cards, not fights. The reason for that is there are only an average of 3.0 big favorites per card (214/71) compared to 9.0 non-big favorites per card (638/71).

If the sample sizes were to be the same, one would have to compare years of big favorites data to months of non-big favorite data. Because the sport has evolved so much over the past few years, the data would be less meaningful to compare a big favorite from 3 years ago to a non-big favorite from 3 months ago.

To derive even more value from the previous statistic, you can subtract these numbers by 100% to get how often the over cashes. So, the result on the over for non-big favorites is 62.2% (100.0-37.8).

We now have a benchmark for the over and under for matchups with or without a big favorite, but how can we appraise different fight totals for value?

How much more likely is an under going to happen when the fight totals are set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds, when a matchup involves a big favorite?

The picture below describes how likely the over/under 1.5 rounds cashes compared to the 2.5 round prop. As you can see, it would be more financially responsible to bet the under 2.5 and the over 1.5, when a big favorite is facing a big underdog.

How do all the divisions compare in fight total statistics, when it involves UFC matchups with a big favorite?

As you can see, most data points don’t have a sample size worth attaching any meaning to. Since the past 71 UFC events has only had 214 big favorites, and there are 12 different divisions, there are not enough data points to go around.

Although these sample sizes are small, a few divisions have some telling statistics. In order to highlight them, I boxed the most noteworthy ones in red.

The over 1.5 rounds prop on UFC featherweight big favorites have won 7 out of the past 9 times. Knowing this, I would avoid betting the under 1.5 rounds prop when a matchup includes a featherweight big favorite.

Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites?

Yes! From the same time frame used above (UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147), there have been 33 UFC matchups with a female big favorite. Out of those 33 fights, the under cashed 17 times. That is a rate of 51.5%.

Now, how often does a bet on the under win when the female matchup doesn’t include a woman that’s a big favorite?

From UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147, there have been 96 such matchups. From those 96 contests, only 23 of them payed out on the under. That is a minuscule rate of 24.0%.

I expect the gap between 51.5% and 24.0% to close as I log more female big favorite matchups, but I see the statistical advantage to continue to exist.

What makes these statistics impressive and potentially lucrative is that oddsmakers and UFC bettors expect the majority of female matchups to go to decision. Because of this expectation, the betting odds that a female UFC fight will make it under the designated fight total are usually around +200.

There is a lot of value on a +200, if the probability of occurrence has historically averaged to be 51.5%. So, make sure to take advantage of those opportunities!

Summary

Here is a quick rundown of what I described in this UFC betting article:

1. When betting an under, favor a matchup with a big favorite.

2. When betting an under, in a matchup with a big favorite, favor the over on a 1.5 rounds line and the under on a 2.5 rounds. Obvious, I know!

3. Female big favorites are more likely to cash a bet on the under than a matchup that doesn’t have a big favorite.

The next major MMA event takes place on Saturday night, with UFC 259 live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

The main event features light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz battling middleweight titlist Israel Adesanya.

As always with a UFC event, there are certainly plenty of bets to be made. Let's take a look at some of them.

UFC 259 odds for Blachowicz vs. Adesanya

Israel Adesanya: -250
Jan Blachowicz: +210

(All odds via BetMGM)

BetMGM has Adesanya installed as a surprisingly huge favorite — as of Tuesday, he comes in at -250, meaning you'd need to bet $250 to win $100. Meanwhile, Blachowicz is a +210, meaning if you pluck down $100, you will win $210.

Blachowicz's (27-8) enters his first title defense having reeled off four consecutive victories, highlighted off by running through Dominick Reyes via second-round TKO at UFC 253 to win the vacant light heavyweight championship and capture UFC gold for the first time. It appeared former 205-pound title challenger Glover Teixeira would be next for the native of Poland, but a surprising name emerged into the conversation.

Adesanya (20-0) won the interim belt in a back-and-forth war against Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236 in April 2019. Six months later at UFC 243, Adesanya knocked out Robert Whittaker in the second round to become the undisputed champion. 'The Last Style Bender' last fought on the same show as Blachowicz when he thrashed Paulo Costa via second-round TKO. Instead of taking a rematch against former 185-pound champion Robert Whittaker, Adesanya wanted a new challenge. He had a meeting with UFC president Dana White and expressed his desire to move up and challenge Blachowicz.

And here we are.

Despite the shockingly wide odds, this is a closer fight than the numbers are indicating. There's no question how great of a competitor Adesanya is. He's undefeated for a reason. Out of his 20 wins (last 10 in the UFC), Adesanya' won 15 of those via stoppage (five in the UFC). Look at what he did to the previously unbeaten Costa. He had the Brazilian on his back foot throughout and reluctant to use his impressive punching power.

Blachowicz is no joke. He started his UFC run by 1-2. Being on the verge of possibly getting his walking papers, Blachowicz went on a torrid stretch by winning seven of his next fights, with five of those wins coming via stoppage (two submissions, three knockouts).

Because Adesanya's looked this good at middleweight doesn't mean his excellent skills will resonate at light heavyweight. There are weight classes for a reason. The only advantage that Adesanya possesses is in the speed department. You have to give Blachowicz the edge in power and if he can get Adesanya on the ground.

For Adesanya to win, he's going to have to be like a surgeon. He needs to be tactical and pick his spots at range. Getting into a clinch situation does him no good because Blachowicz could take him down, blast him with the strong left hand, or grind him to the point of exhaustion because of his significant weight advantage.

For Blachowicz, he needs to do what brought him to the big stage. He's got massive power in both hands and a better-than-average ground attack. If he can avoid or block Adesanya's leg kicks, it should be an easy night at the office.

When it's all said and done, the power and weight will be too much for 'The Last Style Bender,' and Blachowicz is going to use his 'Polish Power' to retain the light heavyweight title and hand Adesanya his first professional defeat.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya prediction

Muehlhausen pick: Jan Blachowicz
Best odds: Jan Blachowicz to win by KO/TKO, DQ or submission: +340

More Blachowicz vs. Adesanya odds

Total number or rounds: over/under

• Over 1.5: -250
• Under 1.5: +195

Will the fight go the distance?

• Yes: +170
• No: -200

Method of victory

Sports Betting Ufc

• Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ: +115
• Adesanya by submission: +1900
• Adesanya by decision: +250
• Tie/technical tie: +5000
• Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ: +500
• Blachowicz by submission: +650
• Blachowicz by decision: +900